Can Trump Campaign Save Itself By November 3?
The chaos of the last few weeks and months in the US has changed the nature of the 2020 Presidential campaign. The Trump Administration’s failure to control the Covid-19 crisis, the subsequent economic fallout, and the widespread protests for racial equality have all had a profound impact on the polls.
FiveThirtyEight's aggregate national data gives Joe Biden an 8% lead. Polling data from battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, vital to Donald Trump's victory in 2016, mirror this national trend. Both candidates are neck and neck in Texas, a typically Republican state that has not been carried by a Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976. A Biden landslide is by no means a given, but the path to re-election is looking difficult for Trump.
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the Trump campaign’s most promising strategy was highlighting the economy to win over voters. But Coronavirus highlighted the Administration’s lack of competence or willingness to handle such a crisis while also sending the economy into a deep downward spiral. Trust in Trump's ability to deal with the pandemic, which has now killed almost 150,000 Americans, is down to 38%.
How can Trump's campaign regain the initiative?
Culture War
The campaign, as in 2016, has stoked tensions with divisive rhetoric on issues such as racial inequality and by deepening the divisions between left and right. Trump's remarks at Mount Rushmore for the July 4th weekend set the tone: "Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials, and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities."
The systemic racism that led to George Floyd’s murder has spurred Black Lives Matter marches, but the Trump campaign believes that putting race at the forefront of the national debate may invigorate his base. The election becomes a referendum on race, rather than a referendum on the Administration.
The race narrative also could have distracted from the Covid-19 death toll. But the scale of the pandemic, including the racial dimension with far more deaths among people of colour per capita than among whites, has prevailed. Trump might lament the tearing down of Confederate monuments, but the national conversation is elsewhere.
So the July 4th remarks, written by hardline anti-immigration advisor Stephen Miller, only highlighted the campaign’s lack of a cohesive message and its ability to take command of the situation.
The Economy
Trump's approval rating as President has rested upon the perception of a strong economy. But that lifeboat sank with the pandession, David McWilliams' term to linked Coronavirus and the economic situation.
How to respond? A bounce back from rock bottom may not seem like a winning election message, but for Trump and the Republican spin machine, positive news beats no news. If the campaign can seize on even a modest recovery to portray Trump the Redeemer, that could spell trouble for Joe Biden.
June's drop in the unemployment rate to 11.1% -- even if the real rate is far higher -- was that glimmer for the campaign. However, it did not help Trump in the polls, and the record-setting resurgence of Coronavirus after Trump's demand for "reopening" the US has drawn the curtains on a V-shaped recovery.
Moreover, the Biden campaign hit Trump where it hurts him most, stealing his thunder by announcing a sweeping $700 billion economic plan and a $2 trillion climate/recovery initiative which have been broadly praised.
Voter Suppression
So if the Trump campaign is stuck in a messaging purgatory amid Coronavirus and economic downturn, what is the remaining option?
Blow up the election.
Voter suppression has been a prominent tactic for some Republicans in recent years, and the Trump campaign is unsubtly hinting that it may double down by raising the obstacles in November.
A simple solution to deal with Coronavirus's effect at the ballot box is mail-in voting. To cut off that option, Trump and his inner circle are spreading the falsehood that postal ballots are fraudulent. They are threatening to defund the US Postal Service.
And Trump is sowing the seeds for his rejection of the election results, should they go against him. He highlighted the possibility in an interview with Chris Wallace of Fox News:
TRUMP: I think mail-in voting is going to rig the election
WALLACE: Are you suggesting that you might not accept the results
TRUMP: I have to see
WALLACE: Can you give a direct answer that you will accept the election?
TRUMP: I have to see.
When Dogs Are Cornered
Trump will likely persist, as he has since coming down the Trump Tower escalator in June 2015 to announce his Presidential candidacy, with his fists and voice raised.
There is a high likelihood that this election is about to become even more divisive. Trump’s war chest has been larger than Biden’s. But that advantage, and his ability to drive the media narrative, has eroded.
When dogs are backed into a corner, they bite. When Trump’s poll numbers fall, he plays dirty. He railed on Twitter, “Fake Suppression Polls & Fake News will not save the Radical Left,” as he threatened to send military and paramilitary forces into cities across the country.
Trump’s narrative strategy may be in disarray, but his strategy for voter suppression is not. His polling numbers may be abysmal, but he is counting on the power -- and abuse of power -- of Presidential authority. The spectre is of the most divisive, brutal, and definitive election in US history.
Ross O’Leary is a media consultant and a masters graduate of UCD Clinton Institute.